The week of August 10–14 saw a two-sided US inflation picture: Wednesday's soft CPI briefly lifted gold to a 10-week high and pressured the dollar, but Thursday's firmer core PPI revived September rate-hike bets, pulling gold and silver back from their peaks. Brent surged over 7% as Iran-Oman talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz stalled and Washington signalled tougher measures against Tehran. Bitcoin and Ethereum drifted lower, decoupling from the metals rally amid thin liquidity and a delayed SEC crypto-framework meeting.
Closing prices, Friday, August 14, 2026: EUR/USD – 1.1570 | Brent Crude – $88.60 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,432.00 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $64.83 | Bitcoin – $62,700 | Ethereum – $1,870
Key calendar, August 17-21: Wed – UK & Eurozone CPI, German PPI, FOMC Minutes. Thu – PBoC rate decision, Australia employment. Fri – Flash US/Eurozone/UK PMIs, Philly Fed Index, jobless claims; Jackson Hole Symposium opens with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks. The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz talks remain the main unscheduled risk.
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1570 (prev. week 1.1521; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079; daily: Buy). The euro held near two-month highs as the dollar stayed on the defensive despite the hotter PPI print. The ECB held rates in July after June's hike, while Q2 Eurozone GDP growth of 0.4% keeps the outlook constructive. Wednesday's FOMC Minutes and Friday's flash PMIs are the key swing factors.
Resistance: 1.1650, 1.1700, 1.1750 – Support: 1.1500, 1.1450, 1.1400
Baseline view: cautiously bullish while the dollar stays on the back foot and the Fed's path remains two-sided. Base case: 1.1400–1.1750.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $88.60 (prev. week $82.21; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily: Strong Buy). Brent rallied over 7% as Hormuz talks broke down and the US pledged fresh sanctions on Iran alongside expanded tanker escorts. The IEA warned of the widest supply deficit in five years, while OPEC cut its demand outlook for a fourth straight month. Escalation risk skews the balance higher.
Resistance: $90.00, $93.00, $95.00 – Support: $85.00, $82.00, $78.00
Baseline view: cautiously bullish while the Hormuz standoff persists. Base case: $78–$95.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $4,432.00 (prev. week $4,342.18; 52-week range $3,311.46–$5,595.46; daily: Buy, weekly: Neutral). Gold touched a fresh 10-week high on the soft CPI print before the firmer PPI reheated rate-hike bets. Record central-bank buying (~289 tonnes in Q2) underpins the medium-term trend. The FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole remarks from Chair Warsh are the key swing factors.
Resistance: $4,470, $4,520, $4,600 – Support: $4,350, $4,290, $4,200
Baseline view: constructive medium-term on central-bank demand, but vulnerable near-term to a firmer dollar. Base case: $4,200–$4,600.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $64.83 (prev. week $64.13; 52-week range $36.96–$121.67; daily: Strong Buy). Silver held above $64, tracking gold's whipsaw between soft CPI and firm PPI data. The gold/silver ratio near 68 keeps silver comparatively cheap even after this summer's advance. Robust industrial demand and a projected 2026 supply deficit remain medium-term supports.
Resistance: $66.50, $69.00, $72.00 – Support: $62.50, $60.00, $57.50
Baseline view: bullish medium-term while the deficit narrative holds. Base case: $57.50–$72.00.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Closed near $62,700 (prev. week $65,029; 52-week range $57,877–$126,110; daily: Sell). Bitcoin slipped roughly 3.5% as thin summer liquidity and revived rate-hike odds weighed on risk assets. The SEC's postponement of its "Regulation Crypto Assets" discussion added uncertainty, while stalled CLARITY Act progress and BIP 110 hard-fork chatter remain overhangs.
Resistance: $65,000, $68,000, $70,000 – Support: $60,500, $58,000, $57,877 (52-week low)
Baseline view: neutral-to-cautious, contingent on the FOMC Minutes/Jackson Hole rate signal. Base case: $58,000–$68,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Closed near $1,870 (prev. week $1,916; 52-week range $1,388–$4,956; daily: Neutral). ETH eased below $1,900, mirroring Bitcoin's pullback. Institutional accumulation via BlackRock's ETHA continues to provide a medium-term floor, with $1,800–1,850 the key support to hold.
Resistance: $1,925, $2,000, $2,050 – Support: $1,830, $1,800, $1,700
Baseline view: cautiously neutral while ETH holds above $1,800. Base case: $1,700–$2,000.
Conclusion
Wednesday's FOMC Minutes and Friday's Jackson Hole opening/flash PMIs are the biggest events of the week, with the Iran conflict and Hormuz talks the main unscheduled risk. EUR/USD at 1.1570: base case 1.1400–1.1750. Brent at $88.60: base case $78–$95. Gold at $4,432.00: base case $4,200–$4,600. Silver at $64.83: base case $57.50–$72.00. Bitcoin at $62,700: base case $58,000–$68,000. Ethereum at $1,870: base case $1,700–$2,000.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
Bumalik Bumalik
